What follows is a pick-by-pick analysis of the AP Preseason Top 25 in its entirety and whether or not, in my personal opinion, each team was placed at the right spot—it's that simple.
That said, let's get to it:
1. Alabama
The Tide are the reigning BCS Champions and should be given their proper respect as such. They have questions on defense but the talent and coaching on that side of ball leads many to believe they will be just fine. As for the offense, they are set and should have little trouble scoring this season.
2. Ohio State
I'm not as sold on Ohio State as everyone else seems to be at the moment. Terrelle Pryor could be the quarterback that we saw play so well at the Rose Bowl but, then again, he could also be the guy we saw play so poorly against Michigan the week prior. The Buckeyes will live or die with him this season, and I don't know that he's ready—the Buckeyes should be lower.
3. Boise State
If I have to go simply by the numbers and not my personal opinion of Boise, then they should be No. 2. They finished the year undefeated, beat an Oregon team that ended up playing in a BCS game, and won their BCS match-up against TCU—a Top 10 opponent. They return 22 starters, including Kellen Moore at QB, and have a favorable schedule. All signs point to success this season.
4. Florida
Too high. No way a team loses the best quarterback in college football, their two top receivers, and the heart of their secondary—not to mention their defensive coordinator—and are actually made better for it. I'm not buying Florida at four—they will have some growing pains this year.
5. Texas
Again, too high. Texas lost some key elements on both offense (Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley) and defense (Earl Thomas and Sergio Kindle) and will be breaking in a new quarterback in Garrett Gilbert. Some may feel that Gilbert earned his wings in the BCS Championship game, stepping in for the injured McCoy, but that's not enough to make Texas a contender in 2010. He will have to prove he can be consistent for more than three full quarters of one game.
6. TCU
They might be exactly where they should be—for now. I am not sure how well the Frogs will deal with the defensive losses of Daryl Washington and Jerry Hughes. Those two were a major part of the smothering defense that wreaked havoc on the MWC in 2009. Now that they are in the NFL, can they find able-bodied replacements?
Too high. I think the AP voters are still in love with Bob Stoops and all of the wonderfully dominant teams he coached at the start of the decade. His teams routinely find favor in the Top 10 of most polls—despite how poorly they finish the season. That said, an 8-5 record does not deserve this much respect, and neither does Bob Stoops at this point.
8. Nebraska
Too low. Hello, Nebraska beat Oklahoma...see what I mean about the respect that Bob Stoops teams receive? The Cornhuskers came within 60 seconds of possibly finding their way into the title game and they return 17 starters—eight of whom are on defense. Suh might be gone and perhaps that's what gave voters pause, but this is still a good team.
9. Iowa
About right. I really like Iowa in the Big Ten this year and I think they could have something special brewing at the tail spot this season—despite the logjam. They just need a little more consistency out of their quarterback to really get things moving in 2010.
10. Virginia Tech
Too high. It might help the No. 3 team to know that the program they will play in September will already have a reason to gripe if they actually get their backside handed to them in RFK. The Hokies defense is suspect and their special teams is inexperienced—they should not be ranked ahead of Miami, Georgia Tech, or North Carolina based on what they have coming back in 2010.
11. Oregon
Too low. Masoli is gone but so what? Chip Kelly has never had any trouble breaking in a new guy at quarterback and the Ducks still have plenty of firepower on offense to go along with a better than average defense.
12. Wisconsin
The coaches' poll seems to be spot-on about Wisconsin—they aren't sure what to make of them just yet. Here's the thing, the Badgers need some quality conference wins this season to offset that joke of an OOC schedule. If they can do that, there is little reason they shouldn't be BCS bound this year.
13. Miami
14. USC
I don't know what to think of this pick. While I can understand the need to include the Trojans in the poll, there is little reason for them to be ranked higher than a team that actually has a chance at a BCS bowl appearance in 2010. It just seems like a wasted spot. So, in my opinion, they are ranked too high because they probably shouldn't be ranked at all.
15. Pittsburgh
If Bill Stull were still spreading the ball around, I could understand placing the Panthers here, but a repeat of last season seems unlikely—even with Dion Lewis running the ball. I don't think they should be ranked significantly lower than 15, but I do think they should be slotted a bit lower than both Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
16. Georgia Tech
Too low. I know that they can be beaten if there is time to prepare but, seriously, how often will a team have time to get ready for the triple-option? The loss of Demaryius Thomas cannot be taken lightly (he was their leading receiver) but the Jackets still have Josh Nesbitt and a wealth of talent at running back. If the defense can find even a small trace of competency under new DC, Al Groh, they will be even more dangerous this year.
17. Arkansas
Ryan Mallett is the main reason why this team is getting so much love. Honestly, he's the best quarterback in the SEC—no question. However, he does not play defense and the Hogs have a little trouble keeping good offenses honest. The Razorbacks have a great quarterback but everything else is average. I can think of a half dozen other teams who would be more worthy of this spot—they are too high.
18. North Carolina
Too low. The offense is anemic but the defense is the reason this team will be good in 2010. If the NCAA doesn't yank too many of their key players and the offense can find any amount of consistency in the passing game, this team could win the ACC.
19. Penn State
20. Florida State
I'm going to say they are a little too low. I think they should be swapping places with Arkansas but that's just me. The 'Noles are bringing in a new coach this season after more than four decades with Bobby Bowden at the wheel. Expectations for QB Christian Ponder remain high and the defense, particularly the secondary, is expected to improve. They won't play in a BCS game, but they should have a better record than the 7-6 one they ended with in 2009.
21. LSU
I tend to believe that Les Miles has finally begun to wear on the Baton Rouge faithful a bit after the coaching miscues of last season. This is going to be his year to prove that he hasn't lost his touch and can still field a winner in the SEC West. I don't know if No. 21 is too high for them, but they are definitely a team that could go either way.
22. Auburn
I like the Tigers and I feel that they are too low here—perhaps No. 19 would have suited them better. Then again, how would I justify placing them above an LSU team that they got pummeled by last year?
23. Georgia
Mark Richt's squad isn't getting much love this season and, perhaps, that is exactly what he wants to see. If his team can fly a bit under the radar in 2010, maybe he can sneak up on a few of his overly confident foes. They may be just right at No. 23.
Too high. The Beavers have a lot of excitement on their roster in the Rodgers brothers, but they aren't worthy of a Top 25 ranking—not right now. I think that Navy or Connecticut would have been a much better choice here.
25. West Virginia
Again, too high. The Mountaineers weren't that impressive last season and didn't close out well in their bowl game against Florida State—losing 33-21. I don't know that they should be ranked at all and I could have easily seen Missouri or South Carolina resting comfortably in this spot. Even better, where's the love for Rutgers? They are a potential Big East sleeper with QB Tom Savage at the helm—do not overlook them.
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