College Football ATS Picks: South Carolina Looks To Knock Off Florida State

The biggest game on the national menu will take place in the Georgia Dome this evening as Florida State locks up with South Carolina for the rights to a 10-win season—the first either team will have seen in quite some time.

South Carolina has fresh memories of their last trip to the Dome—a 56-17 beat down at the hands of Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers—however this game won't bear any resemblance to that one.

Florida State quarterback, Christian Ponder, is expected to make his triumphant return, but he's no Cam Newton and the Seminoles won't have a Nick Fairley to terrorize quarterback Stephen Garcia.

South Carolina has plenty of weapons at its disposal—from freshman running sensation Marcus Lattimore to future NFL draft pick, Alshon Jeffery—not to mention a defense that is tough against the run and well-rested coming into the contest.

Florida State has shown brilliance on both offense and defense this season, but there are questions about the consistency of both units. Can the Seminoles contain the Gamecock's rushing attack for a full 60 minutes?

Will Christian Ponder be ready to come back at full-strength and infuse the Seminoles' offense with the leadership it needs to win the game?

Both teams have plenty to play for so the only question truly is 'who wants it more'?

ATS picks follow. All lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com. The 'Lady' is 8-9 in ATS bowl picks thus far.

South Florida at Clemson, Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson (-5.5)

Clemson isn't a world-beater, but they field a very tough defense and it's tough to imagine that the Bulls will have an answer for anything the Tigers throw at them today—Da'Quan Bowers should be in for another big game.

The Lady's Pick: Clemson to cover

Notre Dame at Miami Hurricanes, Sun Bowl: Miami (-2.5)

Flip a coin in this game as neither side is in the best shape coming into the contest.

The Irish lost many of their games this season due to inconsistent play and key injury. However, they want to finish the year strong and reset for 2011.

As for Miami, coach Shannon is gone, and it is unclear how many players will be motivated to play their best brand of football without their guy on the sideline.

It's a tough one to call, but the return of Jacory Harris might be the difference in this one.

The Lady's Pick: Miami to cover

Central Florida at Georgia, Liberty Bowl: Georgia (-6.5)

Pay attention to the way Georgia plays the run in this one. The Knights are a strong rushing team behind the trio of Ronnie Weaver, Jeff Godfrey, and Latavius Murray and five of Georgia's six losses this season came as a result of poor run defense biting them in the backside.

As for the Knights, they will have the tough task of defending a Georgia passing game that features, arguably, the best wide receiver in the country in A.J. Green. Look for Aaron Murray to take to the air early in this one—hopefully opening up some room for Washaun Ealey and Carlton Thomas to make a play or two against a tough Knights run defense.

The Lady's Pick: UCF to cover

Florida State at South Carolina, Chick-Fil-A Bowl: South Carolina (-3)

Florida State will see the return of Christian Ponder, but unless the Seminole defense can find an answer for a healthy Marcus Lattimore and a determined Alshon Jeffery, that won't matter much.

While both teams sport good run defenses, the edge has to go to the Gamecocks here as they will likely be the most motivated to play well today—erasing the debacle of the SEC Championship from their memory.

The Lady's Pick: South Carolina to cover

Related articles

• Florida State vs. South Carolina Pick, Point Spread & Betting Trends: December 31st 2010 (touthouse.com)
• 2010 SEC Bowl Previews (blogcritics.org)
• Chick-Fil-A Bowl, South Carolina Vs. Florida State: Two Near-BCS Teams Do Battle In Atlanta (sbnation.com)

Jarvis Jones' Decision Could Mean Good Things For The "Dream Team

The Georgia Bulldogs have received another pledge, this time from Jarvis Jones.

Jones was a highly-touted linebacker out of Carver High School in 2008 and the Georgia Bulldogs pursued him relentlessly. However, the in-state product eventually chose the USC Trojoans over the home team and another great player was gone from the south.

After Jones sustained a neck injury in 2008, he was released by the Trojans and given permission to seek playing time elsewhere. Both Georgia and Florida State were said to be his final two choices but, according to Chad Simmons of scout.com (pay site), he would never get to Tallahassee—he chose the Bulldogs after just a two-day stay because he felt they were the best fit.

Although he will redshirt in 2010, it bodes well for Georgia that they have a guy now who is talented enough to fill in at either outside or inside linebacker. The outside spot, in particular, is an area that Georgia found itself thinner at after the dismissal of Montez Robinson this past spring.

However, even more than what this recent commit says about how well Georgia is doing with snagging the best the state has to offer, it's what it doesn't say that has to be a welcoming sign to Bulldog fans.

Dell McGee, the Carver High School football coach, has been the trusted ear of his players during the recruiting process. He was also instrumental in relaying information from Jarvis Jones to any major universities that wished to sign him. It wasn't long before Jones narrowed his choices down to two—Georgia and Florida State. If you consider the fact that Jarmon Fortson—a former standout at Carver—is now at Florida State, then perhaps you can read between the lines as to which schools have McGee's ear.

Was McGee sending a message to Georgia that he is willing to, once again, open the coiffures to the Bulldogs and allow them first dibs at his players? After all, both Gabe Wright and Isaiah Crowell are currently under his direction—both are considering Georgia—although Wright has said Auburn is the team to beat (it should be noted, just for information's sake, that McGee is an Auburn alum).

Was he just waiting to see if they handled Jarvis Jones better, in his opinion, than they did Devin Burns? If he was, then it's obvious the Bulldogs passed with flying colors as Jones never got out of Athens.

The lure of both the 3-4 and Todd Grantham's NFL experience cannot be discounted. Both played a definite role in the decision as Jones still has pro aspirations, but he was also talking to Alabama and North Carolina. He could just as easily have chosen to visit those schools and accept their offers, right?

I know it's heavy speculation on my part, but sometimes actions speak louder than words and this is definitely one sweet act.

What say you?

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The Most Disappointing College Football Preseason Teams of the BCS Era

For many, the official start of the college football season begins with the publication of the Associated Press’ (AP) preseason rankings. It is typically released in mid-August, and its arrival ushers in the first legitimate conversation regarding which team will be the best.

The discussion generated ranges from who is over- or underrated to who was snubbed altogether.
At times, fans agree on how the rankings shake out but, to be completely honest, after No. 10, it’s mostly subjective and doesn’t seem to be derived from any reasonable formula.

That being said, it’s not hard to imagine how many times the rankings have ended up being dead wrong about a team’s place on this heralded list.

What follows are the teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll, during the BCS era, that failed to live up to the hype. I’ve chosen only one team for each year of the era—simple enough.

As usual, there will be some disagreement on either the team chosen to represent that year’s disappointment or on the reason why they failed to meet the expectations given—I’m always okay with that because it can encourage healthy, intelligent, debate.

What you see are simply my opinions. You should feel free to leave yours—respectfully of course.

1998: Arizona State—AP Preseason No. 8

Despite the loss of Jake Plummer in 1996 and Pat Tillman in 1997, there were still high hopes for the Sun Devils in 1998.

They entered the season ranked in the Top 10 and coach Bruce Snyder was being counted on to continue the success of his prior two seasons—one of which saw the Sun Devils go 11-1 and win the Pac-10 Championship (1996).

Apparently, people in Tempe took the attrition of guys like Damien Richardson (DB), Jason Simmons (DB), and Jeremy Staat (DT) for granted because, without them, the team was no longer the defensive juggernaut they saw shut Pac-10 offenses down in 1997.

The season began with two quick losses, in succession, to Washington and BYU respectively. After that, the team struggled to find any rhythm on the field—offensively—for the rest of the season.

They finished a disappointing 5-6 and failed to qualify for a bowl bid.

1999: Arizona Wildcats—AP Preseason No. 4

In 1999, Sports Illustrated writer, Ivan Maisel had this to say about the Arizona Wildcats:
 
“Tomey has his best team since arriving in Tucson in 1987. If you don't see the Wildcats in Pasadena on Jan. 1, look for them in New Orleans three days later, playing for the national championship.”

The Wildcats were coming off a stellar 1998 season in which they finished 12-1. High hopes followed them into 1999 because so much of both their offense and defense was returning—including both Trung Canidate (RB) and Dennis Northcutt (WR).

However, despite the talent that returned on offense, they failed to even get out of the blocks on a strong note as a season-opening road loss to No. 3 Penn State officially blew the wind out of their sails.

They stumbled through conference play play as well, finishing 3-5 on the year, and essentially sank any dreams of going to the Rose Bowl.

They completed the season at 6-6 and failed to make it into the post-season play.

2000: Alabama, AP Preseason No. 3

The Tide seemed to be going in the right direction following the success of 1999. They’d won the SEC Championship and, although they lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in the Orange Bowl, were feeling good about the team’s chances for a better outcome in 2000.

The brilliant one-two punch of Tyler Watts and Andrew Zow was set to return at quarterback and it was hoped that running backs, Ahmad Galloway and Brandon Miree, would be able to ease the pain of losing Shaun Alexander to the NFL.

What happened instead was an early season injury to Tyler Watts that ended up exposing the glaring weaknesses in Andrew Zow’s play.

Couple that with an ineffective run game and you have a team that spiraled into mediocrity in a hurry.
The Tide finished 3-8—losing five straight games to end the season.

2001: Florida State, AP Preseason No. 6

In hindsight, it seems a little peculiar that the Seminoles were ranked this highly coming into the season. After all, they lost their offensive coordinator (Mark Richt), they said goodbye to their Heisman winning quarterback (Chris Weinke), and they still had not recovered from the devastating loss handed to them in the Orange Bowl by the Oklahoma Sooners the prior season.

Perhaps it was their 14 straight seasons of 10 wins or more, their complete and utter dominance of the ACC, or the total measure of respect given to head coach Bobby Bowden for maintaining such a high level of success that granted them such high regard in the polls.

Whatever the reason, people were willing to give Bobby Bowden the benefit of the doubt because he knew how to win.

The season started off handily enough with two breezy victories over both Duke and UAB, but an embarrassing loss to UNC humanized the Seminoles and the ACC smelled blood in the water.

Miami and N.C. State took advantage of their window of opportunity as well, and the Nole’s ended the year at 8-4.

2002: Nebraska Conrnhuskers, AP Preseason No. 10

Take your pick for 2002, Tennessee, Florida, Florida State, and Washington were all in the Top 10—all fell short of expectations. However, Nebraska was the least successful of the bunch and struggled to make it to .500.

Perhaps the Cornhuskers felt they could get by using just their running backs since they no longer had the legs of Heisman-winning quarterback, Eric Crouch to lean on. They were set to return some game-breaking talent in Dahrran Diedrick, and Jamaal Lord was expected to be competent at quarterback—even if he was inexperienced.

At first, it seemed, Solich had everything under control. Nebraska won their first three games with ease, but the road proved tougher and the senior presence on offense and defense became a glaring thorn in the side of the Cornhuskers as they began to completely unravel towards the end of the season.

In hindsight, Nebraska (Like FSU before them) may have also received an obligatory Top 10 ranking based on their glorious history. However, a 7-7 finish to the season proved a painful dose of reality for the many who wouldn’t dare to imagine a season in Lincoln with less than nine wins.

2003: Auburn Tigers, AP Preseason No. 6

The team entered the season poised to finally start receiving the national respect they wanted under coach Tommy Tuberville.

For his part, Tuberville was ready to start showcasing the pro level talent he had stockpiled on his roster; that included guys like Carnell ‘Cadillac’ Williams (RB), Karlos Dansby (LB), Jay Ratliff (DE), Carlos Rogers (DB), Devon Aromashodu (WR), and Reggie Torbor (DE).

He had a stable of talented tailbacks in Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Brandon Jacobs and it was expected that the Tigers would be able to use them to their ultimate advantage that season.

The team finished 2nd in the SEC West the year before and it was felt that a return trip to Atlanta was imminent if the team could 1) field a healthy Carnell Williams for the duration of the season, 2) keep offenses from picking apart an inconsistent secondary, and 3) beat some tough road foes in LSU and Georgia.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, USC and Georgia Tech didn’t care about their plans and Auburn lost their first two games of the season without putting up a fight.

Even though they would recover as the season progressed, the year was ultimately a disaster as the team ended the year at 8-5—finishing 3rd in the SEC West.

2004: Kansas State—AP Preseason No. 12

The Wildcats were hoping that the speed and elusivity of running back Darren Sproles would keep them in the hunt. Unfortunately for Bill Snyder, the Wildcats needed more than a healthy dose of Sproles to keep those Big 12 defenses honest.

Despite his 1,300+ yards rushing, neither the passing game (which sputtered mightily minus the arm and legs of Ell Roberson), nor the defense (which yielded 30+ ppg), was able to get going on the field.
The result was an ugly 4-7 season for Bill Snyder from which the team has yet to recover.

2005: Tennessee—AP Preseason No. 3

The Vols had plenty of talent returning in 2005—including nine guys on defense. The achilles heel, at least in 2004, was the pass defense. The thinking heading into 2005 was if they could right the secondary, and find an adequate replacement for the departed Cedric Houston, they would be fine.

Unfortunately, no one seemed to care that the Vols had an ugly SEC schedule that included road trips to not only Gainesville (UF), but to Athens (UGA), Baton Rouge (LSU), and Tuscaloosa (Bama) as well.

The team was talented, no question, but the schedule was brutal and the secondary was only marginally better than the year before.

Add the two together, and you have a team that was likely snake-bit from the beginning. They struggled in SEC play and failed to find any true playmakers on offense until the second-half of the season (Arian Foster proved to be a true find).

Their 5-7* record resulted in their first non-bowl post-season in more than two decades.

*This was their record as it stood in 2005. Alabama later vacated the win.

2006: Notre Dame—AP Preseason No. 2

Charlie Weis was expected to bring a title back to South Bend in just his second season. He, supposedly, had all the ingredients on offense to get the job done: An experienced leader at quarterback (Brady Quinn), a dynamic talent at running back (Darius Walker), and a sure set of hands at wide receiver (Jeff Samardzija).

The offensive line had some holes, and was a bit thin depth-wise, but it was still thought to be solid enough to keep the Irish offense chugging along quite nicely.

The defense, however, was a touch suspect—particularly in the secondary—despite the presence of Tom Zbikowski, Chinedum Ndukwe, and sophomore talents Kyle McCarthy and David Bruton. This was the one area that the Irish needed to shore up the most if they expected to be playing for a national title—if they could do that, the sky was the limit.

In the end, the title talk turned out to be for naught as the Irish lost to Michigan, in a blowout, at home, in their third game of the year. They went on to win the next eight games but a regular season finale loss to USC all but sealed any chance they had of playing for the national championship that season.

2007: Michigan—AP Preseason No. 5

The Wolverines finished the 2006 campaign in impressive fashion. No one was looking for them to end the year No. 2 in the nation, but they did, behind a suffocating run defense and a strong penchant for controlling the clock (No. 2 in the nation in Time of Possession).

They lost key players on both sides of the ball, including Steve Breaston, Leon Hall, Alan Branch, and LaMarr Woodley, but the bulk of their offensive unit (Chad Henne, Jake Long, Mike Hart, and Mario Manningham) was returning and they had enough playmakers on defense to make it through their brutal schedule—Shawn Crable and Jamar Adams were both back to play their senior seasons.

Most felt that even with the question marks surrounding their pass defense, the Wolverines would be able to get through the first half of their schedule relatively unscathed by using the home field to their definite advantage.

Sadly, for the Wolverines, their first opponent didn’t get the memo.

Appalachian State, a Division I FCS team, came into Ann Arbor and defeated Michigan on a last second field goal. They became the first FCS team in history to defeat an AP Top 25 team. It was an embarrassing loss for Michigan and, abrubtly, ended any shot they had at winning a championship.

The blowout loss the following week to Oregon added more insult to injury as the Wolverines ended the year 9-4—effectively ending Lloyd Carr’s coaching tenure at Michigan on a sour note.

2008: Georgia—AP Preseason No. 1

The Georgia Bulldogs were the hottest team in the nation at the end of the 2007 season. They finished the year winning six straight games, including three against ranked opponents.

However, a loss to Tennessee that season sealed their fate (nationally and in the SEC) and they were forced to settle for a spot in the Sugar Bowl against Hawaii—they won the game and carried high expectations into 2008.

The return of Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, coupled with the presence of a seasoned offensive line, made hope spring eternal in Athens.

The hopes lessened with a loss to Alabama, at Sanford Stadium, and ended with a stomping by the Gators just a few weeks later. Add in an ugly home loss to in-state rival, Georgia Tech, and you have a team that simply didn’t live up to the hype of being No. 1.

The Bulldogs ended with a 9-3 record—earning a Capitol One bowl bid for their troubles.

2009: USC—AP Preseason No. 4

If Oklahoma had not lost both Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham to season-ending injuries, they would easily be the team earning this distinction. However, their injuries likely played a huge role in the Sooner’s disappointing season. That said, the ax falls on the Trojans, who were ranked only one spot below the Sooners that year.

The Trojans lost eight players on defense, returning only three starters from the 2008 team, but no one believed for a second that Pete Carroll didn’t have more guys waiting in the wings to make it happen.

Even if the Trojans faltered slightly on offense, minus Mark Sanchez, there was no way they weren’t still capable of winning the Pac-10 with all the talent they had on their bench.

Pete Carroll’s reputation for churning out winners and reloading his team was a well known, bitterly appreciated, fact. USC was USC—things were going to be fine.

In reality, though, even the mighty Trojans were due for a fall at some point. There was just too much good talent gone and too little experience returning at QB.

The Trojans found a way to win against Ohio State but hiccuped early against a Washington Huskies team that was just starting to catch fire under former USC offensive coordinator, Steve Sarkisian.

Throw in losses to Oregon and Stanford (both of which were uncharacteristically gut-wrenching) and the team limped through the Pac-10 and fell out of BCS favor altogether.

Their 9-4 record on the year marked the first time in seven years that a Pete Carroll led team failed to reach ten wins.

(This article appears courtesy of The Lady Sportswriter—Check it out!)

Mark Bradley Is Making People Angry Again—Why, Mark, Why?

Mark Bradley, one of the Atlanta-Journal Constitution's most trusted writers, has once again laid forth another brilliant article. As usual, it's not flattering of the Georgia Bulldogs and I don't know that I can agree with 50 percent of what he has to say regarding them or any of the other teams he dares to mention. 

Here are some of it's moset head-scratching assertions and, of course, my vain attempt to rip them to shreds:

Georgia will go 9-3 but will finish third in the SEC East. Todd Grantham represents an upgrade. Given time, Aaron Murray will represent an upgrade. Thing is, the Bulldogs’ second game is in Columbia, and that seems a bridge too far. (More precisely, a bridge too soon.) The guess is that Georgia will be rolling come November, but that Sept. 11 loss — and one the next week against Arkansas in Athens — will keep the Bulldogs from a true breakthrough.

Losses to both Arkansas and South Carolina? Under coach Richt, Georgia is 12-2 against Arkansas and South Carolina combined. Explain how they will lose to a South Carolina team that 1) has no idea who it will play at quarterback and 2) hasn't had a viable running game since....well, since...I can't even remember. I can agree that the game will be close, that's the way this game has been played since coach Richt's arrival in  2001 but, Columbia or not, I cannot see the Gamecocks just outright beating Georgia.

As for Arkansas, last time I checked, Ryan Mallett was gimpy and the matchup against Georgia will be his first true test of the season (no disrespect to Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe, but, seriously?). He was 0-4 on the road against the SEC last season—is he going to be monumentally better than that in 2010? And what will the defense be like? There are some holes to fill in their secondary and there is no guarantee that the new offensive coordinator will be as good under Garrick McGee as it was under the, now departed, Paul Petrino.

My guess is this, if Georgia loses to either Arkansas or South Carolina, it won't be a huge surprise but, no way in heck they lose to both—that I don't see.

Even more, if they go 9-3 and South Carolina goes 9-3, what game is the tie-breaker? If Georgia beats Florida, wouldn't Georgia win the East? After all, according to Mark's article:

Florida will go 11-1 because of a remarkably kind schedule. The Gators play four road games: Two against teams (Tennessee and Florida State) with new coaches and one against Vanderbilt. The Gators will lose in Tuscaloosa on Oct. 2, but they’ll see Alabama again.

There is a lot of love for Florida, as usual, despite the loss of 1) Tim Tebow, 2) Charlie Strong, 3) six offensive starters, and 4) six defensive starters (including both defensive ends).  Florida may return one of the stronger offensive lines in the country, but, what difference will that make if they can't stop anybody? Even more, John Brantley may be the man that everyone says he is, but he hasn't been tested on the road or in the SEC, so, how about a little more realism?

Florida has scheduled it's buffet of cupcakes, as per normal, but the SEC is still a tough place to play and without Tebow, no one is all that scared of Florida anymore.

Tim Tebow will win the Heisman Trophy. Whoops. Force of habit. Case Keenum — Houston QB — will win the Heisman Trophy.

Case Keenum is an outstanding quarterback but his team plays a cupcake schedule in a non-BCS conference. I don't care what he does this season, he won't win the Heisman.

The ACC Coastal will be the nation’s toughest division. There’s not a great team therein, but there are four good ones. Miami will be the disappointment. North Carolina will be the surprise. Virginia Tech will win the division. And Georgia Tech …

It will be the toughest division yet it doesn't have "a great team therein..."? That just seems foolish to say. Aside from that, the most balanced team in that division is Virginia Tech. Miami needs to find a running game, North Carolina needs a passing game, and Georgia Tech just lost their 2nd best offensive weapon to the NFL. I don't see the ACC Coastal being the toughest division, that distinction could belong to the Pac-10 this season.

Georgia will beat Georgia Tech. A.J. Green will catch the winning touchdown pass from Murray with 41 seconds remaining. The score will be 27-24. Paul Johnson will suppress the urge to punch somebody in the face.

Georgia will, essentially, have the same offensive personnel and will be playing this game at Sanford. If its close enough that Georgia will need game-winning heroics from A.J., then I'm setting my "SEC homer" card on fire. Georgia will have a week to prepare for this game and I more than expect the 3-4 to be in full swing by this time. I don't see it being close at all—Tech won't get to 24 points. Yes, I said it.

Well, I could pick on Mark some more, but, it's not necessary. Go read the article and have at it yourself.

Back later today with a little more.