College Football Odds Week 4: 10 ATS Winners for Saturday (9/25)

The Lady is stuck being average—for the second week in a row—thanks to giving a little too much respect to Notre Dame and my beloved Georgia Bulldogs. However, a new week beckons and, although the season record stands at an unimpressive 13-12, there is a chance that redemption isn't far from probable as we head into week four.

So, getting back on the horse, yet again, here are ten against the spread (ATS) picks for the Saturday slate of college football.

All lines are courtesy of Vegas Insider. 

1. Michigan vs. Bowling Green: Michigan (-20)

That embarrassing display of football the Wolverines played last week has likely scared off a few people for this week. However, the Falcons lost their starting quarterback and will once again trot out the sophomore, Aaron Pankratz, who led them to victory against the Thundering Herd. Pankratz will be expected to perform well again in Schilz absence, but Michigan isn't Marshall and the Big House isn't anything like home.

The Lady's Pick: Michigan

2. Boston College vs. Virginia Tech: Boston College (-2)

The Hokies have lost their aura of invincibility and, despite their home win over East Carolina last week, I'm not convinced that they are any better of a team now than they were at the start of the season. By contrast, the Eagles have played well (against lesser competition) and look to be hitting their stride defensively. Virginia Tech will be without starting tailback, Ryan Williams, this week as well—leaving the ground game in doubt.

The Lady's pick: Boston College

3. Ohio State vs. Eastern Michigan: Ohio State (-42)

There is something very scary about giving that many points to any team, but the way Ohio State has played this year, you have to feel pretty confident about their chances to cover. It also doesn't hurt that Central Michigan was able to thump the Eagles by 38 points last week—just saying.

The Lady's pick: Ohio State 

4. Georgia Tech vs. NC State: Georgia Tech (-9)

The Yellow Jackets don't seem to be excelling in Al Groh's 3-4 just yet and that has given teams an opportunity to stick around a bit longer in games than Paul Johnson might like. NC State is 3-0 and Russell Wilson will be a challenge to cover because of his ability to scramble. I like the Wolfpack's chances to keep it close.

The Lady's pick: NC State

5. Tennessee vs UAB: Tennessee (-14)

The Volunteers should be able to control the Blazers on offense without too much static and the offense shouldn't have too much trouble scoring on the Blazers defense. This match-up will be a welcome respite for the Vols after the last two weeks of play.

The Lady's Pick: Tennessee

6.  Kansas vs. New Mexico State: Kansas (-23)

The Aggies defense is deplorable—no really—it's bad. Kansas may not be anywhere near the team that Turner Gill expects it to be in the very near future, but they have a lot more going for them than the Aggies who not only find scoring difficult (15.5 ppg), but can't seem to stop anyone else from scoring either (giving up more than 40 ppg). The Jayhawks are by no means prolific, but they should be more than capable of putting points on the board against New Mexico State.

The Lady's Pick: Kansas

7. South Carolina at Auburn: Auburn (-1)

Steve Spurrier's team is 3-0 so far this season but they haven't really been that impressive in getting there.  Auburn struggled against Mississippi State and almost lost to Clemson last week, but you have to believe that the Tigers defense is more than capable of handling whatever Stephen Garcia has to throw at them. The Gamecocks get their first loss here.

The Lady's Pick: Auburn

8. Alabama at Arkansas: Alabama (-4)

I know that a lot of people are drinking the Bobby Petrino/Ryan Mallett Kool-Aid but, the fact is, this will be the first time the Razorbacks meet a team with this much talent this year. Georgia, honestly, wasnt playing with a full deck last week and they almost engineered the comeback. Alabama has all of it's offensive players back in play and Dareus is back too—on defense—so if the Tide can contain Mallett, you have to like their chances to win it here.

The Lady's Pick: Alabama

9. Nevada at BYU: Nevada (-4)

The Wolfpack won a big one against Cal last week, 52-31, and you have to wonder if they will be due for an emotional letdown this week against a BYU squad that just named its true freshman as the full-time starter. Everything points to a Wolfpack win and that is precisely why I am skeptical.

The Lady's Pick: BYU

10. Oregon State at Boise State: Boise State (-16)

This is the upset pick of the week—crazy right? Listen, the Beavers gave TCU all they could handle early this season and they are looking to make a statement against the Broncos as well so expect this game to be competitive.


The Lady's Pick: Oregon State

Virginia Tech vs Boise State: Frank Beamer Is In An Unenviable Position

Here are the three indisputable facts about the Boise State Broncos:

1) They have one of the best records in college football over the last four years.
2) They have beaten BCS competition.
3) They play in the WAC—for now.

That last fact is the one that raises the ire of most every college football fan who detests the endless hype Boise State has received—since stunning the Sooners in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. That infamous "Statue of Liberty" play, executed perfectly by former Broncos signal-caller, Jared Zabranski, both announced Boise's arrival to the rest of the college football world and began the conversation that continues to intrigue us all today—"is Boise really that good"?

The fact that the question continues to exist and pose heated debates among fans and experts alike, nearly five years later, has made it difficult for Chris Petersen's program to receive the two things they are certain they deserve the most—respect and a shot at the BCS Championship.

You see, in 2006, it was okay that Boise won a lot of games and dethroned the big bad Sooners—it was a Cinderella story and every dog is entitled to its day. But, now that they've stuck around long past midnight, long enough to make a fuss about not having a shot at a national title, all anyone wants them to do is go away.

They are supposed to go back to being the "little school" in the "soft conference". The message from the peanut gallery it loud and clear: We don't want you here at the big boy table.

The oft heard refrain has become: "If they played (insert your automatic-qualifying BCS school here) schedule, then they wouldn't go undefeated every year".

However, we all forget that college football left the door open for teams like Boise State, and their "soft" schedules when they decided, in 2004, to omit 'strength of schedule' as a factor in determining the BCS standings—it's merely a consideration now.

With that fact in mind, Boise State has only done what they were supposed to do—play the schedule they have in front of them, and beat every team on it. The WAC may not be a powerhouse conference but that's hardly Boise's problem—is it? Even more, is the schedule they play soft because the opposition is so bad or because Boise is so good?

Think about it, objectively for a moment, why hasn't any other team in the WAC been as consistently good as Boise State has? Fresno State and Nevada have both had opportunities to come out on top—why haven't they?

Admittedly, the latter is a debatable point because there are so many factors to consider—recruiting, coaching, out-of-conference (OOC) schedule, etc. However, when you consider the fact that Boise has beaten Oklahoma, Oregon (twice), TCU, and Utah in the last four-years while Fresno and Nevada have fallen short when given their shot to shine, you have to give a little credit to the Broncos.

Boise has, consistently, shown up when given the opportunity. So, again, what's the problem? Why the outcry of "they're not worthy"...an outcry that this author has, at times, screamed quite loudly as well?

For one, the fans of college football still consider the difficulty of the schedule when assessing Boise as a contender. They simply do not respect the fact that the Broncos play cupcakes all season—no way around that fact.

Secondly, the arrogance of the fan who has a team in one of the BCS "power" conferences immediately cries foul at the fact that their school's road is so tough while the Broncos, seemingly, skate through theirs—remember that refrain mentioned above?

Whether or not 'strength of schedule' is a factor, perception is still reality for the everyday college football fan. They don't give a hoot about Boise getting respect because, in their minds, they haven't earned it yet.

That said, even if Boise defeats a legitimate power, the natural inclination will be to belittle Boise and make excuses for the other team—several examples follow.

Against Oklahoma in 2006, the excuse was Stoops' teams always choke when the opposing team has time to prepare. People referred to the Sooners as "Choklahoma" and pointed to the loss as yet another example of an overvalued team getting their jocks handed to them—Boise didn't win, the Sooners were just overrated.

When Boise beat Oregon last season, it was, "Yeah, but if they played Oregon later in the year, that game would have been different"...uh-huh, well, they played them in August—what can they do about that?

Again, Boise didn't win, the Ducks just weren't ready to play yet.

Their win against TCU in the Fiesta Bowl prompted more excuses: "So what? TCU didn't get stomped or anything. The game was won by the Broncos because TCU's offense stunk"—Boise didn't win, TCU lost.

Excuses, excuses.

So, here we sit, eight-months later, still talking about how good the Boise State Broncos aren't, how they do not deserve to be ranked in the Top 5, and how Virginia Tech will prove all of this on September 6th when the two teams meet—poor Frank Beamer.

This game was just supposed to be the one that replaced their home-and-home series with Syracuse. However, what it has transformed into is a lose-lose for the Hokies.

If Frank Beamer's team wins the game, the Boise naysayers will rejoice and say, "see, we told you". If they lose, the Boise State "we deserve a shot" train continues—with nothing to stand in its way.

In either case, the Hokies are shouldering a monumental burden because the media and the fans have made this game into an epic event—for both teams. 

In truth, however, this is just a game between two teams in the Top 10. Nothing is guaranteed–despite what anyone tries to tell you. Boise State could win this game, run the table, and still not get their shot. Or they could win and be upset later—it doesn't matter—that's why they play the games.

As for Frank Beamer, no coach in college football wants to be in his shoes right now. Win or lose, the rest of his teams' season will be judged according to what they do in this game. The kicker is, his team has question marks coming into this match-up too, they have some holes to fill too—there is a reason the Broncos are favored to win.

One thing is for sure, if the Broncos win this game, in convincing fashion, the rest of the season will be a calling card to the BCS...sponsored by 'No More Excuses'.

The USA Today Coaches' Poll Is Out—Who Won? Lost? Got Totally Hosed?

This morning, the dawn of the college football season officially peaked through the bedroom windows and dormitories of rabid fans across the nation as USA Today released it's annual Coaches' Poll.  While it offered very little in the way of a surprise at No. 1 (Alabama), there were some glaring omissions, low blows, and head-scratchers.

The poll, in it's entirety can be found at the link above, but here are just a few quick thoughts on a few of the picks. 

Winners:

Alabama (No. 1)

I don't think there should be any doubt that Alabama is the No. 1 team in the nation. They have some holes to fill, absolutely, but they are also loaded with talent and return the bulk of their position players on offense.


Iowa (No. 10)

The talk of the Big Ten has largely been focused on two teams this offseason, Ohio State and Penn State. Wisconsin has been looked at as a sleeper, but Iowa has gotten little, if any, love thus far. So, it has to feel pretty good to Kirk Ferentz that his peers can see what others cannot—the Hawkeyes have a good team this season and will definitely be making a little noise.


Oregon (No. 11)

Say what you want about their lack of an experienced QB, Chip Kelly has been on this train before—just ask Dennis Dixon. He has all that he needs at QB and the Ducks will be just fine—as long as their potency in the running game continues.


Georgia (No. 21)

After finishing the season unranked, ridiculed, and doubted by many as a feasible team in the SEC, much less the nation, Georgia makes a triumphant return to the polls after finishing the season unranked. It's a small victory as they are slotted in at No. 21, but when you consider the fact that South Carolina—the team many picked to win the east this season—wasn't ranked at all, you have to feel pretty confident that the Bulldogs are on the right track.


Losers:

South Carolina (Not Ranked)

Speaking of which, where on earth is South Carolina? As mentioned above, aren't they the team that many pundits are locking in as the sexy pick to overtake? Talk about billboard fodder. Spurrier's team not only lagged behind Utah. They fell behind Cincinnati, Houston, and Ole Miss—ouch!

Boise State (No. 5)

Boise State is at five, which is okay, but they can't be too happy about it. Many thought they would at least rate as the second team in the nation. After all, they did finish the season undefeated and return 22 starters—the most of any Division I team in the country.  Oh, and did anyone else find it curious that the coaches' chose to rank Virginia Tech directly after them?

That game at RFK Stadium in September just got more interesting if those rankings stand up. Virginia Tech as the underdog?...Interesting.

Wisconsin (No. 12)

They return a lot of talent, most importantly John Clay, and they have a schedule so blah that a Pee Wee league team could get ten wins—easy. So, why are they ranked behind Iowa? My best guess is the coaches tried not to rank teams ahead of the ones that beat them, but this is supposed to be the Badgers year, isn't it? Or maybe the coaches just didn't feel a need to reward mediocrity—just saying.

Glaring Omissions:

USC (Received No Votes)

Quick...tell me the last time you saw a poll that did not include the Trojans? It's been a long time. Again, it is the coaches' poll and I am sure they didn't feel a need to include a sanctioned team that isn't going to be bowl eligible for two years, but it still looks a touch odd, doesn't it ?

Michigan (Received No Votes)

Something tells me that people aren't buying the talk of a resurgence in Ann Arbor this season. Rich Rod is in the news for all the wrong reasons...again and none of his peers seem to be on board with his tactics. I still like the Wolverines to make it back to bowl season in 2010 but the fact that the team didn't even warrant one vote is astonishing.

Head-scratchers:

Florida (No. 3)

I do find it curious that Florida came in at No. 3. How on earth do you lose Tim Tebow, Joe Haden, Major Wright, Aaron Hernandez, and Riley Cooper and still be considered a Top 5 team? Obviously, people either think a lot of Urban Meyer or the Gatorade coming out of Gainesville is laced with something a lot stronger than electrolytes.

Texas (No. 4)

The same song applies for the Texas Longhorns—seriously? Garrett Gilbert may be the all-world quarterback that Mack Brown needs to replace the exited Colt McCoy, but he's not THAT guy THIS season—no way. No. 4 is tremendously optimistic for the 'Horns in my opinion. 

Utah (No. 24)

Really?...Why? I understand they have a soft schedule and a new home in the Pac-10 starting in 2011, but their are other teams more worthy of this spot than they are right now—see South Carolina, Connecticut, Navy...

Jordan Wynn is a talented QB and the Utes have a better than average offense with him in place but, last I checked, he doesn't play defense. This is a lame duck year for Utah in the Mountain West and every team will be gunning for them to fail—miserably.

Well, those are my thoughts on the poll...what say you?