Wednesday, September 15, 2010

College Football Odds Week 3: 10 ATS Winners for Saturday (9/18)

Another week, another date with the odds makers. Week two found my luck to be slightly less than stellar as both the Georgia Bulldogs and Georgia Tech didn't get the wins I predicted they would—against the spread (ATS).

However, in the end, the Lady ended the day 5-5 ATS—nothing to write home about—bringing the season total to 8-7 (ouch).

This week is bound to be better, if not, a change in profession might be considered. So, without further ado, here are ten teams who should be ATS winners on Saturday.

1. Georgia vs Arkansas: Arkansas (-2.5)

The feel in Athens right now is that the Georgia Bulldogs are a team that lacks any real continuity on defense and the Razorbacks are going to go into Sanford Stadium and steal a key conference road win—kicking the Dog' while it is still down. I don't see that happening, I simply do not. I expect to see a much more motivated team this week, playing in front of the home crowd, and I suspect Arkansas will be a little off kilter playing their first true game of the year.

The Lady's Pick: Georgia

2. Kansas at Southern Miss: Southern Miss (-5.5)

Despite what the win over Georgia Tech alluded, Kansas is still a team that hasn't found an identity. Georgia Tech ran into a buzz saw and didn't know how to get out of their own way. Southern Miss is a much more balanced team, with a significantly better passer standing behind center.

The Lady's Pick: Southern Miss

3. Vanderbilt at Ole Miss: Ole Miss (-14)

After the performance that Vandy gave last week, it seems risky to pick them twice in as many weeks, but I truly feel like they will play better this week against an Ole Miss team that hasn't exactly ruled with an iron fist this season.

The Lady's Pick: Vanderbilt

4. Washington State at SMU:  SMU (-20)

Washington State is terrible. I don't know that SMU can beat them by 20, but I feel fairly confident that SMU can score 20 against Washington State. Now, can Washington State score 20 against SMU?...That's the real question.

The Lady's Pick: SMU

5. Arizona State vs Wisconsin: Wisconsin (-14)

Neither team has really met a challenge this season, so both will probably look rusty against stronger defensive efforts. Expect the offense to struggle a bit early—on both sides.

The Lady's Pick: Arizona State

6. Air Force at Oklahoma: Oklahoma (-18)

Landry Jones is on a roll and the Sooner defense is coming together. The Falcons run a tricky scheme, but it's not unstoppable by any stretch. Count on the Sooners to figure things out early—long before the Falcons can do the same in Norman.

The Lady's Pick: Oklahoma

7. Louisville at Oregon State: Oregon State (-14)

The Cardinals aren't where they need to be yet, but they are getting there under Charlie Strong. Oregon State looked pedestrian against TCU—particularly on offense. The Beavers haven't found an answer for the departed Sean Canfield (QB) and that means a heavy emphasis on the run game. If there is one thing the Cardinals can do, right now, it's perform capably against the run.

The Lady's Pick: Louisville

8. Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan: Central Michigan (-9)

Central Michigan looks lost without head coach Butch Jones—now at Cincinnati—and Eastern Michigan is vulnerable against the run. Lucky for them the Chippewas running game is as bad as it's passing one.

The Lady's Pick: Eastern Michigan

9. Notre Dame at Michigan State: Michigan State (-3.5)

This match-up has been tough to call over the last four years as each team has traded wins at home and on the road. Notre Dame got the best of the Spartans last season but if Dayne Crist plays in this game, there is little doubt in my mind that the Irish will come away smiling.

The Lady's Pick: Notre Dame

10. Kent State at Penn State: Penn State (-23.5)

After getting nowhere offensively in Tuscaloosa last weekend, look for the Nittany Lions to find their scoring grove again this week.

The Lady's Pick: Penn State
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